Fitch: Aruba’s economy beats expectations as public debt continues to fall

ORANJESTAD — Fitch Ratings sees continued improvement in Aruba’s economy and public finances. In its latest update, the agency says economic growth is exceeding expectations, government finances are producing strong surpluses and public debt continues to decline. Aruba maintains its BBB rating with a positive outlook.

The Central Bank of Aruba revised real GDP growth for 2025 to 6.3%, compared with Fitch’s earlier estimate of 2%. For 2026, Fitch projects economic growth of 3.7%.

Public finances are also performing strongly. During the first six months of 2026, the government recorded a surplus of Afl. 260 million, more than double the amount budgeted for the entire year. Fitch projects a fiscal surplus of 3.6% of GDP in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027.

Public debt fell to 62.9% of GDP by the end of the second quarter of 2026 and could decline further to 59.2% by year-end, according to Fitch. The agency does note challenges in carrying out planned capital investments.

Tourism remains an important economic driver. Visitor numbers increased by 11.3% during the first seven months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, reaching approximately one million, while cruise arrivals rose by 6%.

Aruba’s international reserves also strengthened, rising from USD 2 billion in December 2025 to USD 2.5 billion in May 2026, equivalent to 8.2 months of external payments. Fitch says this is well above the average for countries in the BBB rating category.

Fitch also highlighted progress on the Rijkswet Houdbare Overheidsfinanciën Aruba (HOFA). Approval of the law could lower interest rates on pandemic-related loans from the Netherlands and provide Aruba with access to favorable financing for capital investments.

Finance Minister Geoffrey Wever said the positive results do not remove the need to maintain budget discipline, continue reducing debt and create room for investments needed for Aruba’s economic and social development.

The update does not represent a new rating decision. Aruba remains at BBB with a positive outlook, following Fitch’s upgrade to BBB in March 2026.