CAft: Aruba posts strong surplus but investment remains too low

ORANJESTAD — Aruba is heading toward a strong 2027 budget surplus and further debt reduction, but the Financial Supervision Board CAft warns that public investment remains far too low compared with the island’s major infrastructure and development needs.

The collective sector is projected to record a AWG 203 million surplus, equal to 2.3% of GDP. Public debt could decline from about AWG 4.568 billion, or 53% of GDP in 2027, to roughly 39% by 2031.

CAft, however, calls the AWG 3.5 million directly budgeted for investments “marginal.” Aruba plans to channel most future investment through the AIOF investment fund, with AWG 11 million allocated for 2027, but the fund is not yet operational and no clear multi-year investment plan has been submitted.

CAft is urging Finance Minister Geoffrey Wever to present the AIOF budget and a multi-year investment agenda before the 2027 budget reaches Parliament.

Interest costs also remain high, with around 15 cents of every florin in government revenue expected to go toward interest payments in 2027. CAft additionally warns that an ageing population will put increasing pressure on healthcare and social security finances.

According to CAft, Aruba’s fiscal outlook is improving, but stronger finances must also be translated into well-planned investments that strengthen the country’s infrastructure and long-term economic capacity.