Analysis: Cicilia assumes AVP leadership, but can he become a leader in his own right?

Written by Tito Laclé

What for some time appeared to be a possibility has now become reality: Mike Eman will hand over the leadership of AVP to Wendrick Cicilia during the party congress on October 4. Eman himself publicly confirmed this on Monday.

The handover raises a much bigger question than simply who will become leader of AVP. And yes, the question I hear most often is this: Is Wendrick Cicilia ready to carry the political weight of one of Aruba’s largest and most historic parties?

The question is valid, but the idea that Cicilia has absolutely no experience is NOT entirely correct. No. During the 2024 election, Mike Eman handed the position of lijsttrekker, number one on the electoral list, to Cicilia, while Eman himself occupied the position of lijstduwer, number 29. AVP won the election with Cicilia at the head of the list, and Cicilia became the party’s second-highest vote-getter behind Eman himself. That was part of the idea of “turning everything around.” I have my doubts whether that objective of renewal has been achieved so far, but that is another analysis. What Eman did manage to change at that moment was the leadership structure. Cicilia is currently Minister of Tourism, Transport and Labor. So he is not entering politics today. Something is something. Although I can understand if you still believe that this is NOT enough to make him leader of the green party.

But now comes the real issue!

There is a major difference between having political experience and having experience leading a large party under pressure. And certainly a party like AVP. That is precisely the area in which Cicilia still has to prove himself.

One of the most important questions I hear, and one I think about as well, is how independent the new leadership will really be. Mike Eman has led AVP for around 25 years, and already in January he publicly said that Cicilia was his preferred choice to succeed him as leader. The transition therefore did not come out of nowhere; Cicilia has been prepared and positioned for some time. But was that preparation “enough”?

And precisely that could create another problem: where does Cicilia’s own leadership begin, and where does the influence of the previous generation end? There is already talk that Cicilia could now become a puppet manipulated by a group that will be called “advisers.” I have heard that as well.

It is completely normal for a new leader to surround himself with experienced advisers. That can be a strength. The danger arises only when advice becomes direction or instruction, and the new leader is no longer seen as the person who makes the final decision. As I said: a puppet. If, in the eyes of the public, he becomes a puppet, he will lose a large part of his credibility. Cicilia will have to demonstrate relatively quickly that he can listen to advice, but also say “no” when his own conviction is different. This is an area where many people have doubts. Noticiacla currently has a survey underway to measure this sentiment among Noticiacla readers.

ARTHUR DOWERS

The possible relationship with Arthur Dowers adds a VERY interesting dimension. Let me explain why.

Dowers has extensive parliamentary experience and is currently Minister of Justice. In August, in an interview with Noticiacla, he left open the possibility of a future candidacy for Prime Minister, without formally announcing one.

If AVP eventually opts for a structure in which Cicilia is party leader while Dowers becomes Prime Minister, the division of power will have to be extraordinarily clear. Otherwise... why?

Well, a party leader cannot become politically subordinate to his own prime minister, but a prime minister also cannot govern solely through instructions from party headquarters. That is a delicate balance that works only if there are sound agreements, sufficient mutual trust and a clear division of responsibilities. And here again, many people doubt whether that will be the case.

CICILIA’S IMAGE

There are also questions about image. Yes, I have heard this many times as well, and I have similar thoughts about it. Cicilia’s more informal style of dress lately has generated A LOT of public comment. People are talking about the fact that he no longer wears a tie as often and that his trousers are “tight.” Some have even begun making fun of the way he dresses.

But when measuring political ability, clothing in itself is not a serious criterion. A more informal style of dress can project an appeal to younger generations and signal a break with tradition. You and I can think whatever we want about this, but clothing should not become the issue.

However... yes, however: politics is also about perception. And perception can be a BAD THING!

A leader must understand that the way he presents himself, communicates, reacts under pressure and represents the institution can influence how the public perceives his authority. Trousers that are too tight can distract attention, generate unnecessary ridicule and, as such, become counterproductive. The challenge is not for Cicilia to become a copy of Mike Eman or of any other leader — not even in the way he dresses — but to build an authentic image that at the same time inspires confidence.

His age should not automatically become an argument against him either. No leader gains experience without first being given an opportunity. The more relevant question is whether the preparation Cicilia received during his years close to Mike Eman, his experience as lijsttrekker and now as minister are enough to make the leap to full leadership.

And that is where the central issue lies.

AVP itself presents this change as an “Era of Renewal,” a transition to a new generation. But renewal is successful only when the new generation actually becomes responsible for the decisions. If Cicilia constantly depends on a circle of veterans to determine the direction, he will have difficulty establishing his own authority. If, on the other hand, he ignores experience merely to demonstrate independence, he could make a different mistake.

CONCLUSION

The public evidence available today does not allow me — although you have every right to think whatever you want — to conclude that Wendrick Cicilia will be a successful leader, especially because apparently he is not taking over the AVP leadership with the position of Prime Minister at the same time.

But it can equally be said that Cicilia’s trajectory so far does NOT support the idea that he is completely unprepared. He is well educated, can count on an experienced mentor, has already led AVP’s electoral list and has served as a minister for the past two years. Whether we believe all of this was simply meant to “calm emotions within the party” is another matter. It is also important that the party itself indicates that this transition has been prepared for some time.

His real test now is not his age, his tie or his trousers. It is three other things: whether he can make independent decisions, whether he can maintain authority among figures who have more experience than he does, and whether he can transform the support Mike Eman has given him into a leadership that truly belongs to Wendrick Cicilia himself.

Because, let’s be serious! Inheriting leadership is one thing. Becoming a leader is something entirely different!